Bird Flu Pandemic H5n1

The impact of the H5N1 Avian Flu Pandemic will be more catastrophic in the region of South East Asia. History has proven that if we do not learn from our mistakes they will surely reappear to haunt us again. It has been said that approximately every 25 years an influenza pandemic killing large numbers of the population emerges. We are overdue for that pandemic. "A pandemic is a disease that affects a significant portion of the population at any given time" (National Geographic, 2005). According to Clark & Wallace 32 major pandemics have occurred in the past 400 years (Global Connections). The last recorded influenza pandemic occurred during the period of 1968-69, in which a hybrid bird virus emerged in China. This was the cause for the "Hong Kong flu" pandemic, which killed an estimated one million people worldwide (The Fourth Horseman, 1996). China, located in Asia, is a perfect breeding ground for such viruses. However, China is not the only culprit in this situation. Overpopulated, developing, and ill-prepared countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and other South East Asian countries seem to be the best formula for the emergence of these pandemics. Without quick action against such viruses in these regions, this world will fall victim to another pandemic that has potential to kill more than any genocide or any war. In this paper I will discuss how and why the H5N1 flu pandemic will be more catastrophic in regions that are overpopulated, developing and are ill-prepared for such events.

It's commonsense; the more people living closer together will bring about more infected people. Overpopulation is a big concern for South East Asian Countries. With little amounts of land and large numbers of people something is bound to happen. Education, food, healthcare, housing and proper sewage treatment have become big problems which the governments of overpopulated nations face regularly. Out of those big problems stated, proper sewage treatment is possibly the most important in terms of spreading disease. Places in developing countries where there is large number of people living close together, already foster other diseases such as Malaria which has spread rampantly. With the existence of other pandemic type diseases, the emergence of this pandemic will definitely be more catastrophic. Currently, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, South East Asian countries have had the most death related incidents of H5N1 virus. Urban growth is also another issue that will affect the results of the pandemic. To use the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic as an example, people that were packed into a small section of land were being infected the most (Influenza 1918, 1999). In Philadelphia, out of a population of 2 million, approximately 13, 000 people were killed due to the virus. With the increased amount of mobility in the modern society and the growth of cities, the pandemic could kill an unimaginable number (Influenza 1918, 1999). If 13,000 were killed in one city alone in 1918, imagine the severity of this disease and the impact on the population on a developing overpopulated region today. A high population as stated before is a problem for governments. Not only do these governments have to provide education, housing, healthcare, and sewage treatment, food is also a main concern. The interactions that humans have with animals become a major issue when determining how and why these pandemics occur in these regions.

Developing South East Asian countries are in the mercy of these pandemics. Economic conditions have already plagued most of the population. Unable to provide substantial amounts of food become a crucial factor when determining how and why these pandemics appear first in these regions.

Providing food to a growing population is very difficult. The majority of developing countries are agricultural, meaning that they farm for their lively hood and to survive. Human-Animal interactions often occur on a daily basis in rural farms in agricultural countries. In South East Asian Countries, IFRC says,

Subsistence farmers, who keep poultry for income and

food, also live under very basic conditions and closely

with their animals possessing the highest risk to

contracting the disease (IFRC, 2005).

There are an estimated 25 to 40 million village backyard poultry farmers in Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam (IFRC, 2005). H5N1, like most influenza diseases, has potential to cross between the species. Scientists from the World Health Organization (WHO) rate the virus's current state, 3 from a scale of six. Moreover, the same scientists believe that the disease possesses two of the three pre-requisites that contribute to a pandemic. These two factors are: 1) that avian influenza (H5N1) is a new virus which the general population has little or no immunity to; and, 2) avian influenza (H5N1) is able to replicate in humans causing serious illness (WHO, 2006). Fortunately, the third factor which is not present in this strain currently, is its ability to be easily transmitted among humans. This interaction can mean "Direct contact with infected poultry, or surfaces and objects contaminated by their faecesÐ'... [as well as during]Ð'...slaughter, defeathering, butchering, and preparation of poultry for cooking" (WHO, 2006). Hans Troedsson, WHO's representative in Vietnam, said a pandemic would be "horrendous" for the country, which might suffer hundreds of thousands of deaths. With daily interactions with animals, the possibility of the third prerequisite that constitutes a pandemic increases greatly. Already faced with tremendous economic problems, South East Asian countries will in fact experience a greater impact from the pandemic than any other area in the world. When a person in Canada is injured all they have to do is to wait for an ambulance or to commute to the nearest hospital. Healthcare, something that some Canadians take for granted, hardly or does not exist in these countries. As developing nations, a shortage of educated people can lead to a shortage of doctors. A shortage of doctors in