Brazil - Economic Drivers of Globalization

Brazil - Economic Drivers of Globalization

February 2017

Brazil, the largest country in South America, has a population of approximately 207.8 million people. While the country has seen a decline in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over recent years, it still boasts a $1.775 trillion number from 2015. According to the World Bank, its economic and social progress between 2003 and 2014 lifted near 29 million people out of poverty. The income level of the poorest 40% of the population rose, on average 7.1% between 2003 and 2014, compared to a 4.4% income growth for the population as a whole.

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Brazil’s GDP, a measure of the total market value of all final goods and services, contracted by 3.8% in 2015, and is expected to fall at least 3% more in 2016. The GDP annual growth rate tells the same story, having been volatile and mostly on the decline for the past decade. However, if one wants to truly compare GDP over time, change in price have to be accounted for. Real GDP adjusts for changes in price over time, using a base year price to calculate GDP for subsequent years.

[pic 2]By breaking down the aggregated GDP measure into a disaggregated measure, such as the spending approach, it is easier to see where the country’s strengths and weaknesses are. The spending approach, in particular, breaks a country’s GDP down by four categories based on who is doing the spending. Households are considered consumption spending; businesses are investing spending; government is making government purchases; the foreign sector contributes to the trade balance, or the difference between exports and imports.

The majority of Brazil’s spending comes from its consumer sector, while the least of it comes from the net exports of -22.75 billion US$. A negative trade balance signifies that the country is importing more than it is exporting.

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One can see that Brazil’s spending has been consistent since the 1960s. Consumers have always provided the majority of its GDP, while the trade balance has remained low and sometimes negative.

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Another approach one can take to gain a better understanding of a country’s macroeconomic performance is by breaking its GDP down by sector. Based on the graph below, it is obvious that the services sector accounts for a high amount of Brazil’s GDP, while agriculture does not. Since the 1990s, the services sector has grown a great amount, while the industry sector has somewhat tapered off.

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There are several measures outside of GDP that can provide some kind of indication of a country’s well-being. One such measure, if the analyst values the environment, is the adjusted net savings excluding and including emission damage. In other words, the country’s net national savings plus education expenditure and minus energy depletion, mineral depletion, net forest depletion, and carbon dioxide. As seen in the table below, Brazil’s net savings have significantly over the past five years.

[pic 6]Another interesting metric to consider is Brazil’s adjusted net savings as a percentage of its Gross National Income (GNI). GNI is the total domestic and foreign output claimed by residents of a country. It equates to GDP, plus factor incomes earned by foreign residents, minus income earned in the domestic economy by nonresidents. The graph below shows that Brazil’s adjusted net savings haven’t been above 20% of its GNI since the early 1990s and 2010. Today, its significantly lower, around 15% of its GNI.