Calpine Corporation: The Evolution from Project to Corporate Finance
Essay by shraddha_sawaika • November 9, 2017 • Course Note • 889 Words (4 Pages) • 2,264 Views
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Group 2- Disha Singh, Mahesh Tekade and Shraddha Sawaika Prof. P. Saravanan
PGP Mumbai II, AY 2017-18 Course Instructor: Project Appraisal and Financing
Brief Case Analysis 08 November, 2017
Calpine Corporation: The Evolution from Project to Corporate Finance
Ques 1- What are the most significant risks of taking up this project?
Answer Calpine is changing its strategy dramatically, going towards being proactive for making Re-powering America. The new structure will require company to reduce the cost in all aspects in their value chain. Their aggressive strategy success totally depends on being able to construct and also manage new power plants of more than 15000 Megawatts. This seems to be difficult task as they are not yet experts in market power and natural gas in geographically market like America, which is diversified power markets also they have supply side constraints of cycle gas turbines. Calpine faces a technology risk as they have to go through to develop efficient ways of generating energy which are also environmentally – friendly.
Also their strategy is to stop new entrant in power sector which led to excessive expenditure by the company. The bond of the company is rated as BB and they will need approval of 20 banks for revolving credit facility, and there are certain terms and condition of banks which they have to adhere diligently.
Calpine also have to adhere to legislative provisions such as PURPA, 1978 and NEPA, 1992 and other state regulations.
Other risk associated are risk with the industry and product, electricity is one product that cannot be stored hence they need continuous production capacity and also fixed cost are high.
Ques 2- How big are the potential returns?
Table 1. Assumptions
Key Assumptions |
|
4 plants with same output capacity |
|
Output in MW | 1000 |
(Capacity factor) Availability | 90% |
Market price of electricity ($/MWh) |
|
1999 | $ 31.00 |
2009 | $ 24.00 |
No of hours | 8760.00 |
|
|
Gas price ($/MBtu) | 2.2 |
Plant heat rate (Btu/kWh) | 7500 |
Implied fuel cost ($/MWh) | 16.5 |
O&M expense ($/MWh) | 3.5 |
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|
|
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Capital costs | 5000,00,000 |
Years to construct | 2 |
Depreciable life | 30 |
Debt to capitalization ratio | 65% |
Pre-tax cost of debt | 7.75% |
Tax rate | 38% |
Inflation rate | 2% |
Table 2. Calculation of WACC
WACC |
|
|
Beta | 0.6 | (exhibit 6a) |
Risk free Rate | 5.66% | (Exhibit 6a) |
Risk premium | 6% |
|
Return on equity | 9.2600% |
|
Return on debt | 4.81% |
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|
|
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Equity | 35.00% |
|
Debt | 65% |
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WACC | 6.3642500% |
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Table 3. Calculation of returns based on DCF valuation
| 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 |
Capacity in MWs |
|
| 4000 | 4000 | 4000 | 4000 |
Production in MWh |
|
| 31536000 | 31536000 | 31536000 | 31536000 |
Price |
|
| 30.53 | 32.0166667 | 32.657 | 33.31014 |
Revenue |
|
| 962794080 | 1009677600 | 1029871152 | 1050468575 |
Expense |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fuel (Pg. 6 reduction 5%) |
|
| 494326800 | 494326800 | 494326800 | 494326800 |
O&M Expense (Pg. 6 reduction 10%) |
|
| 99338400 | 99338400 | 99338400 | 99338400 |
Depreciation (Pg. 5 reduction 25%) |
|
| 49905720 | 49905720 | 49905720 | 49905720 |
Tota Expense |
|
| 643570920 | 643570920 | 643570920 | 643570920 |
Gross Profit |
|
| 319223160 | 366106680 | 386300232 | 406897655 |
Interest Expense |
|
| 100599840 | 100599840 | 100599840 | 100599840 |
Profit Before tax |
|
| 218623320 | 265506840 | 285700392 | 306297815 |
Tax Rate |
|
| 83076861.6 | 100892599 | 108566149 | 116393170 |
Net Income |
|
| 135546458 | 164614241 | 177134243 | 189904645 |
Operating Cash flow |
|
| 185452178 | 214519961 | 227039963 | 239810365 |
Capex ( for 4 plants) | 125000000 | 125000000 | 125000000 | 125000000 |
|
|
FCF | -125000000 | -125000000 | 60452178.4 | 89519960.8 | 227039963 | 239810365 |
Terminal value |
|
|
|
|
| 109897630 |
Total FCF | ₹ -1250,00,000 | -125000000 | 60452178.4 | 89519960.8 | 227039963 | 349707995 |
NPV | ₹ 3195,71,037.80 |
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IRR | 35% |
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