Demographics And World Commerce

Demographics and World Commerce

Author: Tom Pace

GEO/150 Geography of World Commerce

Mr. N. Clark Capshaw (FAC)

August 14, 2006

Demographics and World Commerce

Demographics are generally defined as the characteristics of certain human populations and population segments mostly "...concerned with a wide range of economic, social, [and] cultural characteristics, analysing political orientations, consumers' demand for products or the impact of social trends on macroeconomic variables" (Demographics, 2006). Although demographic data is usually concentrated to show the characteristics of a narrowly defined group, this paper will discuss how demographics affect the commerce of the world as a whole and specifically:

1. How the diffusion of ideas and technology has impacted global commerce,

2. What the relationships are among ideas, events, social climate, and commerce,

3. What future trends there might be in regional demographics,

4. How the trends in regional demographics might affect global commercial patterns, and

5. What impact these commercial patterns will have on the natural environment.

The Impact of Diffusion on Global Commerce

Diffusion has been defined as the process by which an innovation (or idea) is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system (Rogers, E.M., 2003, p. 11). Technology, in the socioeconomic sense, is a design for instrumental action that reduces the uncertainty in the cause-effect relationships involved in achieving a desired outcome, or, in layman terms, the relationship between a tool and the way it is used. Knowledge of a technological innovation creates uncertainty about its consequences in the mind of potential adopters driving them to seek more information. Thus, "the innovation-decision process is essentially an information-seeking and information-processing activity in which an individual [or group] is motivated to reduce uncertainty about the advantages and disadvantages of the innovation" (Rogers, E.M., 2003, p. 14).

From a global perspective, innovations or ideas spread, or are adopted, at different rates. Sometimes the adoption depends on a technology cluster which consists of one or more distinguishable elements of technology that are perceived as being closely interrelated (Rogers, E.M., 2003, p. 14). Some change agencies promote a "package" of innovations because they find the innovations are thus adopted more rapidly. An example of this was the package of rice- or wheat-growing innovations that led to the Green Revolution in the Third World countries of Latin America, Africa, and Asia (Fellman, J.D., Getis, A., & Getis, J., 2003, p. 282). In addition to the so-called miracle varieties of rice or wheat, the cluster included chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and thicker planting of seeds. If the entire cluster were adopted by a farmer, crop yields approximately tripled.

In addition to technology clusters, other perceived attributes of innovation which affect global adoption are:

* Relative advantage - the degree to which an innovation is perceived better than the idea it supersedes. The greater the perceived relative advantage, the more rapid its rate of adoption will be.

* Compatibility - the degree to which an innovation is perceived as being consistent with the existing values, past experiences, and needs of potential adopters. An idea that is incompatible with the values and norms of a social system will not be adopted no matter how good it is.

* Complexity - the degree to which an innovation is perceived as difficult to understand and use. The more readily an innovation is comprehended by most members of a social system, the faster the adoption.

* Trialability - the degree to which an innovation may be experimented with on a limited basis. New ideas that can be tried on the installment plan will generally be adopted more quickly.

* Observability - the degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others. The easier it is for individuals to see the results, the more likely they are to adopt the innovation.

Past research indicates that these five qualities are the most important characteristics of innovations in explaining the rate of adoption (Rogers, E.M., 2003, pp. 15-17) which, therefore, affects the diffusion of new ideas and technology in global commerce. Some nations of the world are very quick to adopt new technology while others, even yet, have not.

Relationships

Human societies and cultures do not exist in a vacuum. Human beings exist within geographic locations and they interact with their environment and each other. Cultural convergence is a term that describes the sharing of technologies, organizational structures, and even cultural traits and artifacts that is so evident among widely separated societies in a modern world united by instantaneous communication and efficient transportation (Fellman, J.D., et al., 2003, p. 52). Convergence in worldwide terms is proof to many of the pervasive globalization of culture.

The interlocking nature of all aspects of a culture is known as cultural integration. This is marked by several different subsystems, chief among them are (Fellman, J.D., et al., 2003, p. 53):

* Ideological subsystems - the ideas, beliefs, and knowledge of a culture and of the ways in which those things are expressed in speech or other forms of communication.

* Technological subsystems - the material objects, together with the techniques of their use, by means of which people are able to live. The objects are the tools and other instruments that enable us to feed, clothe, house, defend, transport, and amuse ourselves.

* Sociological subsystems - the sum of those expected and accepted patterns of interpersonal relations that find their outlet in economic, political, military, religious, kinship, and other associations. They regulate how the individual functions relative to the group.

Individuals create ideas and if the ideas are deemed acceptable within the social climate of a group they are adopted by the group which