Japan Population Crises

Hisa Hashidate, 88 years old, is a "senior orphan" living in southwest Tokyo#. The welfare cuts have reduced her monthly income by 12 percent. In order to survive in this situation, she has to stretch one piece of fish for two days' worth of meals. "Ashamed of not being able to afford traditional offerings of money at weddings and funerals, she has simply stopped attending them. Although she is nearly blind, she switches off the lights at 8 p.m. to save electricity"#. Hashidate, like many other seniors is living in a state of poverty. This devastating event is the result of the population implosion. According to current trends, the Japanese population is expected to fall from 127 million to under 90 million by 2055#. Japanese families are having fewer babies while the general population is growing older. This sudden population change will create many problems for Japan's economy and society. If Japan cannot act fast enough to do something about this, its "top flight economy" will take a heavy toll. In addition Japanese society will be affected. With the population shift and Japan's already high net debt, the younger population will be the ones having to solve the financial debt. Due to the growing elderly population and the shrinking general and youth population, Japan's future economy will be heavily affected unless the government can find a way to solve its looming problems. In order to understand what is happening, we must first look at the population crises, then at what problems it is causing, and finally, at the ways to solve this problem.

Japan's population is predicted to peak at around 128 million in 2007 and slip downwards from there, until the population reaches 90 million. Few reasons have been made to explain this anticipated drop. The first reason is that Japanese people are marrying less often. They are either postponing it or not marrying at all. The number of weddings has dropped last year for the second straight year#. The number of single Japanese women in their late 20s has rose about 24 percent since 1985 and one half of single women between the ages of 35 to 54 have no intention of marrying#. "The average age for first-time marriages in 2001 rose to 27.2 percent, compared to the 25 years old in the 1980s"#. Also, more women prefer to establish careers over marrying and having children. Kayakoa, a 35 year old woman, explains her reasoning, which represents the choices of many other Japanese women. "I love my work too much to give it up for a family even though I might regret my decision later"#. This is causing the birth rate, or fertility rate, to decrease. In 2005, the fertility rate, the number of children women has during her lifespan, fell below 1.3 children compared to the 3.65 in 1950#. According to the Economist, this fertility rate is projected to stay low for at least a couple of decades. In order to keep a stable population, Japan needs to have at least a average birth rate of 2.1#. Japan's birth rate is so low that its population will decrease quickly and will be very difficult to reverse and later repopulate.

While the birth rate is decreasing, the elderly population is increasing. One explanation for this is that the Japanese have longer life expectancy. Japanese men and women live some of the longest lives in the world. According to Joseph Coleman of the Associated Press, Japanese women live the longest lives in the world with an average life expectancy of 85.6 years. Japanese have had the longest lives for the 20th straight year in 2005. Japanese men live the second longest lives with an average life expectancy of 78.6 years old, only second to the Icelandic males. With the high life expectancies, it is logical that the elderly population is growing. In 2005, the number of Japanese 65 and older was 25.6 million, about 20.04 percent#. In 2050, it is predicted that out of every three Japanese people, one person will be 65 years or older#. Japan's rapidly growing elderly population itself is a big problem, but there is also the problem with the youth population which makes this matter more complicated.

The young population is the most vital to Japan. It's the young population that supports the retired and elderly population, but now it is expected to decrease. Japan's current youth and working class is now about two thirds of the population, but is expected to reduce to about one half of the population#. The children in Japan is only projected to have a population of 11 million in 2050#. With so few children the future will have a dwindling amount of workers. This low population is due to the fact that the birth rate in Japan is so low. With less workers there will be less people to support the elder population. The workers also pay taxes tot the government With less workers, Japan's productivity will go down bringing with it the economy. This is a serious issue that has put elderly into an "age of poverty." The number of people in their working years, 15 to 64 years old, has been declining ever since 1995#. According to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, the number of people in the working class is expected to fall to about 70 million in 2030 and as little as 54 million in 2050#. Not only is the working class shrinking, but the elderly are growing. This produces a huge problem for Japan's future economy.

In 2055, each elderly person will be supported by 1.3 working people, compared to the current ratio of 3.3 people supporting the elderly#. The low number of workers threaten to slow down or even stop economic growth. The low number of workers also means that there will be cuts in senior care. The seniors are getting their health care and welfare trimmed down because there simply are not enough young people to support them. With the low number of workers supporting each senior, seniors are getting less and less care. Gosuke Kakizaki, a 73 year old "elderly orphan," is living "entirely dependent on the state"#. He is one of many who have been hit by a "series of deep welfare assistance for destitute seniors, a group who swelling numbers are aging the face of poverty in Japan"#. The government's checks have been cut from $826 to only $625 a month. This is a huge reduction considering that he lives in Tokyo, a very expensive place to live. Kakizaki explains the difficult and limited life he lives. "I can't afford transportation, film for my camera of the photo-developing fees for such trips anymore. The photos are all I have left. I can barely afford to feed myself now"#. The government is also cutting back on what Anthony Faiola of the Washington Post calls the "famed safety net of universal health, generous pensions and welfare benefits for seniors of all social classes"#. Welfare Ministry