Nit 4 Decision Making

Activities #1 and #2 deals with correlations between confidence and accuracy. When most people say they are 100% sure their answer is correct, they are usually between 70-85% correct. According to the classroom material (2006) "A decision maker is perfectly calibrated when,...all judgments at a given level of confidence, the proportion of accurate judgments is identical to the expected probability of being correct."(p.5).

In Activity 3, after reviewing the cards with letters and numbers the Self-Fulfilling Prophecies are being demonstrated. The problem being tested is if X, then Y; the correct way to determine the solution is to flip cards E and 7 to confirm the statement. Many individuals will conduct the opposite and pick the cards to agree with the statement but until the correct cards were picked then it would confirm the answer.

In Activity #4-Investment trap is the principle that is used in this situation. Investment traps occur when prior expenditures of time, money, or other resources lead people to make choices they would not otherwise make (Plous, 1993). The investment trap phenomena can be avoided if enough time and money is available.

In conclusion, the decision making principals that were mentioned above imply that decision making and confidence levels have a gap between them-the more confident one is the wider the gap between the confidence level and the real answer. A good decision maker will recognize this gap and will try to incorporate an intentional trap into his or her decision making process. This tarp will lower the confidence level, and allow the decision maker to evaluate other options before making a final decision. One example of such a trap is to present an opposite view to a problem, assess it and then use the results to confirm the true solution. One also has to distant himself or herself from preexisting biases, otherwise he or she will end up