Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear Weapons

• It has an impact on peace, war and security
• Spread of nuclear weapons
• Proliferation-increase rapidly
  Spread-increase in number

• 1st state to develop nuclear weapons- USA 1945

2nd state- Russia (1949)
Britain 1952, France 1960
China 1964
India & Pakistan 1998
North Korea 2005

There has never been a war between nuclear countries. US and SU did not really go to war (cold war) as they mutually feared each other

India and Pakistan- after becoming nuclear states, these 2 countries didn’t go to war. Before that, they fought 3 bloody wars

According to realists, we should love the bomb, as since states acquired nuclear weapons, there has not been any nuclear wars

Neo realists are nuclear optimists- for them, the spread of nuclear weapons will lead to nuclear peace
For realists, if Iran and North Korea acquire nuclear weapons, there will be world peace

For Kenneth Waltz, nuclear weapons are not about defense but DETERRENCE
DETERRENCE- Dissuading someone from doing something by threating to hit back

States will not attack because of fear of punishment.
Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)- SU and US didn’t go to war as they feared each other

Deterrence theory is based on 3 requirements (Sagan)
1. There should be no preventive war during the transition period (No attack from a nuclear state to another one which is building one)

2. Second strike invulnerability (1st strike will not destroy the nuclear capabilities of the state. In nuclear strategy, a second-strike capability is a country's assured ability to respond to a nuclear attack with powerful nuclear retaliation against the attacker.
3. Only state leaders will have the capacity to press the nuclear button. Unauthorised persons won’t have access to these weapons

ARGUMENT AGAINST PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
1. Leaders might be crazy-irrational
2. Leaders of rogue countries (Kim Jong Un) are described as crazy, and might be unable to appreciate the negative  impact of nuclear weapons

However, neorealists say that even the craziest leaders say that they know they can’t start a nuclear war

Nikita Crustief said that he would bury US using Nuclear Weapons-nothing happened
Mao and Stalin killed millions of people, without the use of nuclear weapons

History has been on the side of neorealists
1. There has been only one nuclear war

2. No war between India and Pakistan

3. No nuclear war between US and SU

Nuclear Pessimists

• For them, we have to worry about nuclear weapons
• It is true that there has been no war between nuclear states, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be nuclear wars in the future
• Richard Betts- All disasters are things that have never occurred until the first time they occur
• For Scott Sagan, we must open the blackbox to see what is happening in a state
  We must analyse internal factors of states, especially between those who have just acquired nuclear weapons
  
• Look at the relationship between military leaders and civilian leaders to see if military has an influence over the civilian government
  
  In Madagascar and Egypt, the military has a strong influence over the civilian government
  
• State might not want to sell their know how about nuclear weapons now, but might sell it later for money
  Abdul Kahhn- sold bomb designs to Lybia, Iraq and sold nuclear technology to N.Korea
• State Interest v/s Individual interest
• Lack of government influence in new nuclear states
  

• In china, the government has the last say concerning nuclear weapons. In other states, it is the military which has the last say.
  
  Concerning deterrence requirements

1. For Sagan, preventive war will happen when military leaders have the last say in decision making.
2. There is a lack of protection and central control for nuclear weapons, increasing the probability of vulnerability
3. There can be cases of unauthorized access to nuclear weapons- in 1992 a Lithuanian programmer put a virus in the system protecting the nuclear plant