Peak Oil

Reggie Koch

Professor Metcalf

English 100

11-14-2007

The Beginning of the End of Oil

The end of oil can mean an end to a lot of things in an industrialized lifestyle that we live in today. With more than 60% of the world passed their peak, this puts United States at a great risk because the U.S. alone uses more than 25% of the world’s oil. According to Tom Whipple, “Americans have consumed an average of 9.3 million barrels of gasoline a day so far this year, an increase of 0.6 percent from last year” (Whipple). In 1956, a man by the name of Dr. Marion King Hubbert, who worked as a geologist for Shell, came up with “Hubbert’s Peak.” Hubbert’s Peak is Dr. Hubbert’s theory, which he accurately predicted, that U.S. domestic oil production would peak in 1970 (Deffeyes 2). Some people didn’t believe in Dr. Hubbert’s Peak theory. They saw it as just a “theory.” Most people now feel that Dr. Hubbert make a good point and believe that the world is coming to an end of oil. This could be in 5 years from now or 30 years--no one really knows when it’s going to happen. The end of oil is not only going to have and end to transportation, but it will also have an impact on other things such as agriculture, economy, and almost everything else that is used daily in an industrialized country. The big problem isn’t the fact that the world is running out of oil, the big problem is running out of oil without a back-up plan. The solution to this problem is to be less dependants on oil and to come up with alternative sources that can replace oil or help us use less of it.

The end of oil is going to bring everything to a complete stop. This will drive all corporations to bankruptcy, which will result in unemployment rates skyrocketing. This will result in the stock markets plummeting and this could lead to a world wide great depression. The lifestyle that we have been so use to is going to take a drastic change. Things like cell phones, televisions, computers, air-conditioners, heaters, and cars are some of many things that we will lose in this battle.

The end of oil will also result in the end of suburbia. In the documentary, The End of Suburbia, James Howard Kunstler stated that, “in Texas oil was less expensive than a glass of water.” CBS News reported in November of 2007, that the state’s average per gallon of gasoline in Texas is $2.94. The price per barrel of oil is now around $100, which is still expected to increase.

For 20 years, Hubbert worked for the Shell Oil Company in Houston, Texas, first as the director of the research laboratory, and eventually as chief geology consultant. One of the results of his research was the creation of methods to calculate the amount of remaining oil and natural gas in the world, during a time when it was assumed that natural resources could never be depleted. The Hubbert Peak Theory states that since oil is a nonrenewable resource, we are slowly going to suck the Earth dry, of its conventional oil. This theory also articulates that United States’ oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. After these peaks, oil production slowly declines, until there is none left for us to extract. Due to lower quality in oil being extracted from the Earth, oil is becoming increasingly difficult to refine, and is almost using more energy to refine it than the actual production. Not only did Hubbert calculate the year accurately, his theory has still proven correct. We have already reached the peak and are beginning to feel the effects of its decline. For every 10 barrels of oil used only four barrels are discovered. New oil fields are still being discovered but none that are big enough to substantially change the amount of oil produced. In the past 30 years no significant liquid oil fields have been discovered (Deffeyes 3-5).

After Dr. Marion King Hubbert presented his theory in 1956, everyone thought he was crazy. There were many different reasons why people discarded Hubbert’s theory. The main reason why people didn’t believe in Hubbert’s theory is because during the time had also presented their theories but they were all wrong because they were using the wrong calculations. Most people that claim to have a prediction of the oil peak would take “barrels of reserves” and they would divide that by “barrels per year” which would provide them with and answer in years. This resulted in all the predictors in having all the same answer, which was clearly the wrong answer because they all come up with 10 years. The people that didn’t agree with Hubbert believed that he was also wrong with his predictions up until 1970, when his prediction were proven. Another reason why people rejected his theory was because at the time oil based companies were happy and making millions and they didn’t want this to affect them or their companies (Deffeyes 3-5). Today, there are still some people that believe that we have not yet reached peak oil. But for the most part, people have come to realize that peak oil has hit and obviously we can see the results and the damage its doing to us when we go to pump gas in our cars.

Although the United States isn’t the most expensive place to buy gasoline, American’s feel that their paying too much. American’s use over “25.9%” of the oil used around the world and produce less than half of the amount American’s consume. American’s consume more oil than the whole European Union put together making it very reliant on oil (Wieczorek). Right now, the average price per gallon of gasoline in American is $3.061(November 8, 2007). A month ago we were paying around $2.765 and about a year ago we were paying about $2.199. In a year, the price per gallon of gasoline has gone up almost a dollar. The highest recorded price in the United States was California. The average price per gallon in California is $3.340.

The end of oil is going to have a major impact on every industrialized country. It is predicted that we will really feel the shortage in about 30 years where gas prices will be extremely high. The CEO of Halliburton, Dick Chaney, made a speech in 1999 where he talked about the additional 50 million barrels per day that the United States will need by the year 2010 shows that were going to be growing and the amount of oil that we consumer is going to increase and this is going to be really expensive when the whole world is not producing