The Future Is Renewable

The Future is Renewable

Western International University

COM 112

The Future is renewable

"We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history, there is such a thing as being too late. Procrastination is still the thief of time. Life often leaves us standing bare, naked and dejected with lost opportunity. The 'tide in the affairs of men' does not remain at the flood; it ebbs. We may cry out desperately for time to pause in her passage, but time is deaf to every plea and rushes on. Over the bleached bones and jumbled residue of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: 'Too late... (King, 1967).

Oil is the undeniable backbone of the modern industrial society. If we where to suddenly lose our access to this "black gold" it would devastate almost every aspect of our lives. For decades, we have been given steady warnings of the impending end of the oil glut. That this cheap, easy access, high energy and versatile fuel is indeed finite and that it would be foolish not to have a contingency plan in place. Well, we are now at the point were petroleum alternatives are no longer a novelty, they are now a world saving necessity. Renewable and sustainable alternatives to petroleum need to be brought online in the next 5 or 10 years before oil becomes any more of an energy liability.

The true origin of oil is widely believed to be organic material, mostly plankton that lived and died millions of years ago, 180,000,000 to be a little more precise. As the plants and animals die and settle to the ground and are covered in sediment. Crude oil comes after a healthy combination of time, depth and pressure. The Earth is even now make more crude oil in earnest but this will not come in time to be of much use to us, 150,000,000 years is a long time to wait. The reality is that oil has been running out since the very first barrel was pumped from the ground. Oil is a finite resource that has lifespan only as long as the way in which we us it and the rate at which we use it. This being said, the point at which we need concern ourselves is not when the oil wells dry out completely. If this was the point at which we as a society should expect crisis then we would be safe for many more decades. The point at which oil will no longer serve it's long standing function as a cheap and abundant source of energy occurs when the production can no longer match demand. Present production and discovery rates keep the supply of oil just above the demand for it. However, with natural population increase and with the recent and rapid industrialization and modernization of India and China the demand for oil will increase quickly and will soon, very soon outpace the supply. Once the supply and demand ratio tips to far then even new large discoveries could not return things to balance. When this happens, the price of a barrel of crude oil will grow unchecked until it reaches unimaginable prices. This will have diverse effects, such as the crippling of transportation, stagnating and failing economies, falling consumer buying power and confidence and falling and failing stock markets. In a few words, this would trigger a worldwide recession. Conservation and future discoveries may postpone this doomsday but they cannot stop it from coming, this is an inevitable event.

With so many aspects of our lives dependent on oil, the lost or significantly diminished production and use of oil would be devastating to almost every facet of our industrialized society. As oil is wound into almost every aspect of our lives the food we eat, the way we travel, the way we work, the computers we use for school even the technology and methods that are currently used to explore oil alternatives. As aptly stated by Dr. Youngquist

No other substance has so changed the world and affected so many people in such a short time as has oil. Oil has become a vital part of industry, agriculture, and the fabric of society at large. Oil by its derivatives, gasoline, kerosene, and naphtha, fuel more than 600 million vehicles worldwide. But oil is a finite resource, and we are using it at an exponential rate. There will soon be a post-petroleum paradigm. What problems lie ahead in adjusting to it, and what will be some of the major aspects of life at that time? (1999)

What problems lie ahead in adjusting to it? We would have to restructure many aspects of our society. We would have to adopt a conservationist and frugal mentality. We would have to find new ways to produce millions of products that we take for granted. We would have to find replacements or alternatives to the thousand or so ways in which we use petroleum and it derivatives. We must be prepared for the possibility of "resource wars", the huge spike in oil prices will result in a global mad dash for the last of the black oil (Savinar, 2004) this could be the catalyst for another World War. In other words the problem that we would face as a society is that we would have to rethink our entire way of life. This is should not be so depressing a thought, imagine we did just fine in the thousands of years in which we had no idea that oil existed.

If we can bring a viable alternative to oil online, it will significantly cushion the effect of peak oil. The time is now though. No, the time was 10 years ago. The choice is gone; we have no choice we need to bring an alternative to petroleum, an alternative to fossil fuels online if we are to survive as a vibrant and technology rich society. Prominent geologist C. J. Campbell explains

It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the World is indeed facing a discontinuity of historic proportions. The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of stone but because bronze and iron proved to be better substitutes. Firewood gave way to coal; and coal to oil and gas, not because they ran out or went into short supply but because the substitutes were cheaper and more efficient. But now, oil production does reach a peak without sight of a preferred substitute

(2001).

We need to develop an oil alternative while we have oil in the bank. It takes oil to research and develop alternatives to oil. Mining uranium, building wind farms even growing corn takes at least an initial investment of oil. If we do not have these alternatives refined during a time in which we have oil at our disposable then these alternatives will no longer be viable. The concept of Energy Return