The Influences of Thaad with a Focus on the Chinese-Korean Relationship

The Influences of THAAD

with a focus on the Chinese-Korean relationship

Background

THAAD, the acronym for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, is an American anti-ballistic missile defense system designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase by intercepting with a hit-to-kill approach. ^[1] On June 4, 2016, shortly after North Korea’s failed ballistic missile test on May 31, South Korea announced that they intended to deploy the THAAD system in order to defend against North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, since what THAAD can shoot down are basically the type of weapons North Korea claims it has. Despite the potential benefit of defending themselves, media and people of South Korea were quite skeptical about the project, let alone other countries in the northeast Asia region including China and Russia. However, after the United States (U.S.) decided to sanction North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, South Korea announced on July 8, 2016 that they agreed to deploy America’s missile defense system THAAD. Later on July 13, the installation location was announced to be a South Korean Air Force base in Seongju County, which is some 200 kilometers southeast of Seoul. This decision has been highly controversial since Day One.

The opposition comes from both inside and outside the country. Domestically, especially residents in Seongju County, are very concerned about their safety and security, given the precedent of high crime rate in Okinawa, Japan, where the US military base is located. Besides, the system may have negative environmental impact that could threaten residents’ health and local agricultural economy, especially that the government did not make a complete environment assessment before the decision of deployment. Moreover, THAAD will be both built and controlled by the United States, causing South Korea to further lose its strategic autonomy. Last but not least, many people are worried about that the deployment will hurt South Korea’s relationship with China, which can seriously affect South Korea’s economy.

Internationally, while the U.S. claims that any deployment of THAAD in South Korea would be used solely to protect its forces there and their South Korean allies, neighboring countries such as China and Russia see it as further militarization of the peninsula and an escalation of the American presence there. China especially, tends to view any increase in U.S. military presence in Asia as an attempt to jeopardize "China's legitimate national security interests", according to China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi.^[2] The concern is quite reasonable since almost half of China would be under surveillance of South Korea and the U.S. once THAAD is deployed. The deployment can also mean that the U.S., South Korea, and Japan are one step closer to forming a Nato-like regional alliance to counter China. Many Chinese also felt disappointed or even “betrayed” because China and South Korea used to have good relationship on many levels. This paper will discuss the attitudes from other countries in detail later.

        Therefore, the deployment has been full of twists and turns. After many protests, on September 30, 2016, it was announced that THAAD would be relocated to Lotte Skyhill Seongju Country Club, which is farther from the town's main residential areas and higher in elevation, hoping to alleviate concerns. Dramatically enough, President Park Geun-hye was impeached later that year due to scandal, so not until the election of the new president Moon Jae-in in May 2017 did South Korea government got to deal with the THAAD problem again. The system was declared partially operational a week before Moon was elected. The deployment was halted by the administration of Moon Jae-in to make an environmental impact assessment. However, the week following North Korea’s sixth and most powerful nuclear test on September 3, 2017, the remaining four THAAD missile launchers arrived in Seongju, and Moon agreed that the two systems that had already arrived would stay, but wanted to pause further deployments. In order to restore relationship with China, a public pronouncement of “three no’s” was made -- no additional THAAD deployment, no participation in the U.S.’s missile defense network and no establishment of a trilateral military alliance with the U.S. and Japan. On December 13, 2017, Moon Jae-in arrived in Beijing for a four-day visit, wishing to further mend the relationship. Although the promise was made by South Korean government and it was said that the U.S. was also on board with this agreement, it is still too early to say how the “three no’s” will play out.

Current Influences

        Given the persistent and strong opposition from domestically and internationally, the deployment has naturally caused a series of influences and consequences.

Domestic Influences

        As mentioned above, no environment assessment was conducted before the decision to deploy THAAD, which deeply upset residents of Seongju County. There have been numerous protests since the decision was announced but the government largely “ignored” those voices and carried on with the deployment anyway, which has disappointed many people and caused them to lose trust on the government.^[3]  Furthermore, some South Korean media pointed out that it is humiliating since the THAAD system will be totally controlled by the U.S., which can compromise South Korea’s autonomy.^[4]

Relationship with China

        It is important to know why China feels threatened by THAAD in order to understand its actions taken attempting to halt the deployment. The THAAD system is equipped with a powerful detection system that is believed to be capable of monitoring potential Chinese missile activity in the region, including routine military exercises. From China’s perspective, this is no different than having someone install a surveillance camera at the gate of your house, peeking at everything you do. In worst case scenario, should there be any future conflict between the U.S. and China, the THAAD system could put China at a serious disadvantage.

Professor Lee Sung-yoon acknowledged China’s concerns. “No military deployment, exercise or weapon is purely defensive. There is certainly an aggressive or even offensive element to this: If you build up your missile defense system, your intention is to negate your adversary's military capabilities.” ^[5] Therefore, it is reasonable for China to worry that THAAD could be a means for the U.S. to form an alliance and “meddle” in East Asian affairs.

        It is not difficult for South Korea and China to understand each other’s perspective and concerns. Yet, some argue that both countries had too high an expectation for each other -- China expected that South Korea would not deploy THAAD because they would not want to destroy the good relationship between the two countries, while South Korea expected that China would not boycott or sanction them, also considering the good relationship. However, it turned out that they both guessed wrongly.