Fallacy

In these examples, the arguers have mistakenly assumed that because two

events are regularly correlated (i.e., go together), there must be a cause-andeffect

relationship between the two. But correlation does not imply causation.

The rooster may crow every morning just before sunrise, but that doesn't

mean that the rooster's crowing causes the sun to rise.

Perhaps the most common form of the questionable cause fallacy is the

oversimplified cause fallacy. This fallacy is committed when we assume, without

sufficient evidence, that A is the sole cause of B, when, in fact, there are several

causes of B. Here are two examples:

Violent crime has declined steadily in recent years. Obviously, tougher imprisonment

policies are working.

SAT scores have fallen sharply since the 1960s. Clearly, students are watching

too much TV.13

The first argument oversimplifies the situation by ignoring other causes that

have likely contributed to falling crimes rates (new policing strategies, changing

demographics, reduced use of crack cocaine, etc.). In the second argument,

the arguer correctly identifies one likely cause of declining SAT scores:

kids today watch too much TV. However, he fails to mention other important

causes that have also contributed to the decline (e.g., the fact that a much