Joe

1. Define Propecia's potential customer base. What is Propecia competing against in the consumer's mind? What can be learned from Rogaine's experience in the marketplace?

Potential customer base is any male who is experiencing symptoms of MPHL. Generally over half of the male population of the US

4 times as likely to effect Caucasians than Black men. Also less instances in Asian men.

30 million people according to exhibit 3

Propecia is competing against a number of different products. Broadly speaking it is competing against all hair loss solutions:

Rogaine is a topical cream that is applied morning and night. It currently costs $30 a month and is about 25% effective in men. It leaves a greasy residue and has minor side effects like skin irritation. It's manufacturer plans to release a "maximum strength" version this year

Generic Minoxidil is the same as rogaine with no brand awareness. It costs about half as much.

Hair Replacement surgery involves transplant of skin grafts and costs between $2000-$10000. It can require multiple grafts and is less useful in receding hairlines insofar as the hair keeps receding thus requiring additional implants.

Mechanical Solutions: Wigs weaves and toupees. $500 to $3500. The most realistic ones are woven into existing hair and need to be tightened at a cost of $50-$75 every six months.

Topical Solutions: This is basically voodoo bs. I feel like anything that isn't scrutinized by the fda is inherently suspect but existing solutions cost between $20 and $40 and provide a mostly cosmetic solution

I think in the consumers mind, Propecia is primarily competing with Rogaine because it is the only existing product that actually causes hair to grow back. This is great for Propecia because it is clinically proven to be more effective and it's much less of a hassle. I think the big takeaway from Rogaine's experience is that it will take time to grow market share because this is the type of product that consumers are inherently suspicious and embarrassed about so word of mouth will be the strongest marketing tool.

2. How does a customer come to use Propecia? How can Merck best influence that process?

According to Merck's research: Two thirds of men suffering from hair loss are concerned about it but half consider it to be a future problem. 1 in 3 have resigned themselves to it. This means 1/3 of the men experiencing MPHL(10 million) are immediate potential customers.

Men commonly wait years for treatment believing it to be a slow process and often underestimating the degree of their own hair loss.

Once potential customers decide to actively pursue a solution, if they are going to use propecia, a doctor needs to be involved in the process. Presumably, they go to their doctor and ask about available medical solutions. This could be a result of consumer education directing them to do so or on their own volition. This is where it becomes crucial for a doctor to have been educated by Merck's sales team.

Key stat: Prevention magazing says 75%-85% of patients who asked their doctor for an advertised drug received a prescription for it.

3. What type of ads, if any, should Tom Casola run at product launch? What message should Propecia convey to potential customers?

I think the key messages are that this stuff