Tesco

Reliance upon the UK market

Although international business is still growing, and is expected to contribute greater amounts to Tesco's profits over the next few years, the company is still highly dependent on the UK market (73.8% of 2003 revenues). While this isn't a major weakness in the short term, any changes in the UK supermarket industry over the next year - for example, like the Morrison's group successfully purchasing the Safeway chain - could alter the balance of UK supermarket power, and affect share.

Debt reduction

Tesco is not expected to reduce its debt until at least 2006. Tesco has a large capital expenditure program - mainly due to its huge investment in space for new stores. Since its expansion is so aggressive, Tesco has little free cash for any other operations.

Signs point to serial acquisitions

With an enterprise value of Ј23 billion, Tesco clearly has enormous firepower. Also, its product range is vast and almost any acquisition can be justified, particularly in the UK. While 'fill the gap' strategy would be useful to the company, as has been the case with the UK convenience market, there is the danger of Tesco becoming a serial acquirer, as this tends to reduce earnings visibility and quality.

UK structural change could spark a price war

The price followers in the UK market are about to become aggressive investors in price, Safeway because of new ownership and Sainsbury because of new management. Morrison is reducing Safeway's prices by up to 6% and Sainsbury is bound to see lower prices as one of the basic changes necessary to drive its recovery. With both Asda and Tesco committed to price leadership, this could result in a step down in industry profitability.